UNC Basketball Analysis, 12/25

With the loss of Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green from last year's national championship team, UNC had a lot of question marks coming into this season and many of these questions are still in the process of being answered.

Carolina has lost 3 non-conference games so far this year, after not losing any games before ACC play in either of the past two seasons. But before Tar Heel fans start to panic, it must be pointed out that UNC has played a ridiculously difficult schedule up to this point. All three of their losses have come to teams that are currently in the top-5 and undefeated (#2 Texas, #3 Kentucky, #5 Syracuse). To go along with these losses, UNC has two wins over ranked teams. They took down #15 Ohio State in Madison Square Garden and defeated #9 Michigan State in Chapel Hill in a December rematch of last year's national championship game.

Although UNC will not be the favorites to cut down the nets in 2010, it's not out of the question for them to make another deep run in the NCAA tournament if they get a good draw and peak at the right time.

Here are my individual player breakdowns based upon the first 12 games of the 2010 season:

• Larry Drew has been better than many fans expected at the point guard position, currently sitting in the top 10 in the nation in assists. In the game against Michigan State, Drew had his coming out party as he outplayed Kalin Lucas, the reigning Big 10 Player of the Year. He is still not a huge threat offensively but he has the ability to knock down jumpers if he has space, and he does a nice job of distributing the ball to his teammates. He is a little erratic at times but so far he has been everything that reasonable Tar Heel fans could have asked for, and his numbers across the board actually compare favorably to Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton's stats from their first years at running the point for UNC.
  
• Marcus Ginyard has battled through another minor foot injury recently, but overall his play this year has been what you would expect from a senior glue guy. He has improved his jump shot considerably from where it was in his last full season in 2008, and has become a reliable outside shooter if he is left open. He is still the Tar Heels' top perimeter defender, and is 3rd on the team in scoring despite not having a tremendous skill set on the offensive end.
• Will Graves is a wild card on this team as he returns from his suspension last year. Although he is probably the best pure shooter on the team, his play has been predictably inconsistent from game to game and Coach Williams has not been pleased with his play. To his credit, he responded well when he was replaced in the starting lineup in the Tar Heels' most recent game against Marshall, coming off the bench to notch 13 points and 10 rebounds for his first career double-double.
• Deon Thompson is currently the leading scorer for UNC, averaging 16.1 PPG. After being the 5th option on a loaded team last year, he has been asked to carry a lot of the offensive responsibilities and has responded relatively well. The key for Deon is to maintain his high level of play as ACC play begins and the competition continues to stiffen. His patented turnaround jump shot has looked good and his outstanding free throw shooting (81%) has been a nice surprise after he has struggled from the charity stripe in years past.
  
• Ed "Sleeves" Davis is the leading rebounder and shot blocker on the team and has recently emerged as the dominant force that many people around the nation were expecting him to be this season. The best pro prospect on the team, Davis turned down being a lottery pick last year after his freshman season in order to come back to Chapel Hill and fine tune his game. I'm personally a big believer that the 2010 Tar Heels will go as far as Ed Davis can take them.
• Tyler Zeller is the first man off the bench, and he's a unique player that I consider UNC lucky to have. He is a 7-footer who excels at running the floor and picking up easy buckets in transition. After being limited last year with a broken left wrist, Zeller has shown what he can do this year after putting on 20 pounds in the offseason. He continues to improve with each passing game and he has the best offensive skill set of anyone on the team. He has been extremely efficient on the offensive end, averaging double figures in points despite the fact that he is only playing 16 minutes per game. His defense and rebounding still need work, but he is getting there. I look for him to become a force in the paint for Carolina sooner rather than later.
• Dexter Strickland has emerged recently to be the aggressive slasher that UNC desperately needs. Strickland is the most explosive athlete on the team, and is one of the few Tar Heels that is capable of creating his own shot. After struggling with turnovers early in the season, Dexter appears to have settled in and adjusted to the speed of the college game. I love the swagger and confidence that he brings to the table, and he has proven to be cold-blooded - he has nailed buzzer beaters right before halftime on multiple occasions already this season.
  
• David Wear has done a nice job of playing the small forward position for UNC, despite the fact that he's 6'10 and is more of a natural power forward. He has shown off a nice 3-point stroke and actually leads the team in 3 point field goal percentage, although he hasn't taken quite the volume of shots that some of the starters have. He possesses a high basketball IQ and has earned more playing time lately, and even started the Tar Heels' most recent game. Roy Williams continues to search for an answer at the small forward position, with no clear-cut starter stepping up to take the job full-time.
• John Henson was the highest rated player in UNC's freshman class, but it's clear that he is more of a project than some UNC fans were hoping he would be. After playing in the post in high school, Henson is learning how to play the small forward position on the fly. This is not an easy adjustment, especially considering the fact that ACC level basketball is a big adjustment for any freshman, much less a 6'10 guy learning to play on the perimeter for the first time in his career. Henson has shown flashes of brilliance with a few highlight dunks and rejections, and I get the feeling that he is ready to break out at any moment. When he is able to add some muscle in the weight room and become more consistent with his jump shot, he will be a major factor for UNC.
  
• Travis Wear hasn't gotten an abundance of minutes this year due to the fact that UNC's frontcourt is so talented and so deep. However, Travis has shown signs of being a banger down low and I really like his toughness. Like his twin brother David, he has a college-ready body as a freshman and a high basketball IQ. While he spends most of his time in the paint, he also has the ability to step out and shoot from outside and will certainly be a valuable player for UNC by the time he is an upperclassman.
• Justin Watts has been one of the pleasant surprises of the year thus far for UNC. He still isn't logging a lot of minutes, but after being almost a complete non-factor on last year's team (he routinely came in to play with the 4 walk-ons) he has shown drastic improvement from last year to this year. He is still a bit raw, but he is a heck of an athlete who has provided a spark off the bench for UNC on more than one occasion already this season.
  
• Leslie McDonald has struggled to find his niche so far this year. I expected him to come in and be ready to contribute immediately, since he's known for having a well-rounded game with no glaring weaknesses. However, sometimes when a talented player arrives on a college campus and receives limited playing time, it can be hard to step on the court cold and make an impact when you don't have time to get in a rhythm. This is what Leslie is going through right now, but I really believe that he will come up big for Carolina in the future. He's shown promising signs as a defender and I think his offensive game will take off tremendously once he gains some confidence and sees the ball go through the net a couple times.
  

Obviously, these player evaluations are not final and can change by the game. It's very tough to form a solid opinion about these players, considering the fact that most of these guys are underclassmen who haven't played in but a handful of college games. All of these kids are talented and have great attitudes, and will undoubtedly get better as the season goes on and they continue to develop.

I'm excited about watching this Tar Heel team grow into a force to be reckoned with by March, and I think they are a team that nobody will want to play in the NCAA Tournament.

2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl Preview (UNC vs Pitt)

For the first time since 1997-1998, UNC is bowl eligible in back-to-back seasons. The Tar Heels return to Charlotte this year for their 2nd straight appearance in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. After falling to West Virginia 31-30 last year, Carolina's opponent in 2009 will be #17 Pittsburgh (9-3), who was mere seconds away from pulling off an upset against Cincinnatti on the final weekend of the regular season. A win in that game would have clinched the Big East title for the Panthers and sent them to a BCS game.

It has been a season of ups and downs for UNC, as they overcame a rough 4-3 start to win four of their last five games, finishing up the regular season with an 8-4 record for the second straight year. They have notched huge wins against the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami, but have also experienced frustrating losses against inferior teams such as NC State and Virginia.

All in all, given the injuries the Tar Heels suffered on the offensive line and the fact that they lost 3 key receivers to the NFL after the 2008 season (Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate, and Brooks Foster), the season has been a relatively successful one for Carolina under 3rd year coach Butch Davis. Progress is clearly being made with the football program in Chapel Hill, and Tar Heel fans are optimistic about what the future holds for UNC football.

With a season-opening primetime game already scheduled for next September against SEC powerhouse LSU, a win in the Meineke Car Care Bowl would be very important for the Heels and provide them with much needed momentum heading into Spring practice. A win over Pittsburgh would send the message that UNC has what it takes to join the conversation as one of college football's elite programs. Long referred to as a "sleeping giant" in the college football world, UNC has made a commitment to bringing big time football to Chapel Hill by hiring Butch Davis and pouring money into upgrading the facilities.


The key to UNC's success this season has undoubtedly been it's stellar defense. The Tar Heels have been ranked in the top-10 in total defense all season long, and a majority of the key players on the defensive unit are juniors. Although they have another year of college eligibility remaining, a handful of the players have caught the eyes of the professional scouts as well. At the end of this season, one or more of the members of UNC's defense may elect to forego their senior seasons and fulfill their dreams of playing in the NFL.

For this reason, there has been a lot of chatter this week about whether the Meineke Car Care Bowl could be the last time playing together for standout juniors Marvin Austin, Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter, Kendric Burney and Deunta Williams. There are no definitive answers as to who will be back next year at this point, but if UNC is able to hang on to a majority of these players they will certainly have an elite defense again in 2010 and be in great position to compete for an ACC Championship.

For the time being, the Tar Heels must focus on trying to beat a very tough Pittsburgh team. The Panthers were picked as the preseason favorites to win the Big East, and they fell just short of doing so as they blew a 31-10 lead in the final game of the regular season against undefeated Cincinnati, losing a heartbreaker by a score of 45-44.

Pittsburgh's electric running back Dion Lewis (pictured left) will certainly test the talented UNC defense. The 5'8 freshman has rushed for 1,640 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, and has topped the 100-yard mark in seven straight games. In the aforementioned season finale against Cincinnati, he carried the ball 47 times for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns.

One advantage it appears the Tar Heels will have in this game is fan support. In last year's bowl game against West Virginia, the Mountaineer fans traveled in large numbers to Charlotte and created a relatively neutral atmosphere for the sold out contest in Bank of America Stadium.

However, this year's game hasn't been quite as hot of a ticket, mostly due to the fact that Pittsburgh has reportedly only sold about 5,000 tickets. Estimated attendance for this year's game is about 45,000 according to bowl officials, way down from the 75,000 who attended last year. Although it is always disappointing when there are empty seats in the stands, the silver lining from a UNC perspective is that the crowd will be overwhelmingly pro-Carolina.

All in all, the Meineke Car Care Bowl is one of the most intriguing matchups of the bowl season. Both teams have showed flashes of brilliance this year and appear to be fairly evenly matched. Carolina fans are hoping that 2009 goes down in history right alongside 1982 and 1993, as years where their beloved Tar Heels bring home a national championship on the hardwood and a victory in a bowl game all during the same calendar year.